USDJPY Trading Signals
The USDJPY Morning Range, in every plan
A second, separate system on one currency pair. Every signal is posted to Telegram with an exact entry, a stop-loss and one target. At most one trade a weekday, always closed the same day. On 1-minute data from January 2021 to September 2026 it took 1,462 trades and made +162.7 R after spread and slippage.
USDJPY signal performance
January 2021 to September 2026, on 1-minute data: 1,462 trades, every one charged the spread quoted on its entry bar (markup included, no commission) plus 0.20 pips of slippage per side. Losing stretches included. This window is longer than the index pages', which start in September 2023, so its totals are not to be read against theirs.
USDJPY equity curve
Cumulative R, week by week
Weekly resolution; the curve is flat in weeks without a trade.
Year by year
Every year at the same weight, the bad ones too
| Year | Trades | Win rate | Gross | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 257 | 42% | +41.6 R | +22.3 R |
| 2022 | 252 | 46.8% | +59.1 R | +50.0 R |
| 2023 | 255 | 41.6% | +24.5 R | +14.7 R |
| 2024 | 254 | 42.5% | +35.5 R | +26.1 R |
| 2025 | 255 | 48.6% | +59.0 R | +50.8 R |
| 2026to Sep | 189 | 37.6% | +8.5 R | −1.2 R |
Monthly net R
Swipe sideways to see every month →
Is the USDJPY edge real?
Math, statistics and quantitative analysis confirm it: in backtesting from January 2021 to September 2026 USDJPY made +162.7 R after trading costs across 1,462 trades. USDJPY is one part of a plan, and the plans are built to be traded whole. Each market tends to have its best runs at a different time, so their results add up: the edge comes from the sum of every trade a plan carries, across all of its instruments. To get the most from it, take every signal your plan sends, at the same risk.
- Economic (DE40, USDJPY): 1,312 trades, +146.2 R after costs, +284% with profits compounded at 1% risk per trade.
- Premium (US500, US100, US30, USDJPY): 2,257 trades, +167.9 R after costs, +338% with profits compounded at 1% risk per trade.
- Diamond (DE40, US500, US100, US30, USDJPY): 2,787 trades, +215.1 R after costs, +576% with profits compounded at 1% risk per trade.
Plan figures are the backtest of each plan as one account, September 2023 to September 2026.
When USDJPY signals fire
USDJPY signals can arrive from 05:00 CET, which is 23:00 in New York and early afternoon in Tokyo, and anything still open is closed at 17:00 CET (11:00 New York). The times follow the New York clock, so for a few weeks a year, when the US and Europe change their clocks on different dates, they fall an hour earlier in Central European time.
Entry time
Half-hour buckets, Central European time
Day of the week
Roughly the same number of trades every day
Holding time
From entry to the close
1,244 of the 1,462 entries came before 09:00, and the few before 05:00 are the weeks when the clocks differ. A weekday or half-hour that looks weak here is most likely noise, not a rule to filter on, and the system does not skip any of them. The holding-time split is different: it shows how the system makes money. Trades that closed within four hours of entry came to −230.9 R between them, and the ones open for longer made +393.7 R.
What it costs to trade USDJPY
A signal is only as good as the fill you get on it. These are the numbers to check against your own broker.
The stop is set for each trade, so its size changes from day to day. The cost charged on every trade is the spread with the broker's markup included and no commission, plus 0.20 pips of slippage per side.
Each signal is a single position with one stop and one target, and anything still open is closed at 17:00 CET.
What is USDJPY?
USDJPY is the price of one US dollar in Japanese yen, the second most traded currency pair in the world after EUR/USD. It trades around the clock from Monday morning in Asia to Friday evening in New York, with no single exchange and no opening bell.
It is quoted to three decimal places and its moves are counted in pips. One pip is 0.01, so a move from 158.029 to 158.129 is 10 pips. Brokers list it as USDJPY or USD/JPY, sometimes with a suffix. It is the only currency pair the service signals.
USDJPY at a glance
- Pair
- US dollar / Japanese yen
- Broker symbols
- USDJPY · USD/JPY
- Market hours
- 24 hours, Monday to Friday
- Signals
- From 05:00 CET, flat by 17:00 CET (11:00 New York)
- Plans
- Economic · Premium · Diamond
What moves USDJPY
The interest-rate gap
The difference between US and Japanese interest rates is the main driver: when US yields rise against Japanese ones the dollar tends to gain on the yen, and the reverse.
The Bank of Japan
Policy meetings, changes to its stance on yields and official warnings about the yen can move the pair sharply, often during Asian hours.
US data and the Federal Reserve
CPI and the jobs report at 08:30 New York fall inside the hours a trade can be open; FOMC decisions at 14:00 New York come after the system is flat.
Risk appetite
The yen is often bought when markets turn defensive, so sharp falls in equities tend to pull USDJPY lower.
Anatomy of a USDJPY signal
Every message carries the same three levels, entry, stop-loss and target, so there is nothing to interpret. You decide whether to take it and how much to risk.
- One trade, one position. A single entry with one stop and one target.
- The stop comes with the signal. Its size changes from day to day. On USDJPY the median stop was 35.64 pips, about 0.25% of price.
- Closed the same day. Anything still open at 17:00 CET (11:00 New York) is closed.
- R is the unit. 1R is what you lose if the stop is hit. Sizing each trade so 1R is a small, fixed share of your account keeps every signal the same size of bet, however wide the stop is that day.
Representative levels built from the median USDJPY stop, not a real trade.
How to read these numbers
Backtest statistics are easy to quote and easy to misread. Here is what each one on this page means, using the figures for this market.
R: risk as the unit
1R is the amount lost if the stop is hit. A +2R trade made twice the risk; a −1R trade lost it. Measuring in R makes the results independent of account size and of how many dollars or euros one USDJPY pip is worth.
Win rate needs the payoff
43.4% winners looks weak on its own. With an average winner of 1.36 R and an average loser of 0.85 R, the expectancy is 0.434 × 1.36 − 0.566 × 0.85 ≈ +0.111 R per trade.
Profit factor
Everything won divided by everything lost. 1.0 is breakeven. At 1.23, each 1R lost on USDJPY was matched by 1.23R won.
Drawdown
The largest fall from a running high: 41.0 R, bottoming on 2026-06-25. Risking 0.5% of the account per trade, that is roughly 21% of the balance. Size for the drawdown you can sit through, not the return you hope for.
Gross and net
Gross is before trading costs, net is after the spread on each entry and 0.20 pips of slippage per side. On USDJPY costs took 65.5 R out of 228.2 R gross. Every figure here is net unless it says gross.
Sortino and Sharpe
Return per unit of volatility, from daily results annualised over 252 trading days. Sharpe counts all volatility; Sortino only the losing days. USDJPY scores 2.58 Sortino and 1.22 Sharpe on its own.
More in the guides: win rate vs risk-reward, what R means and how to size a position, how to read a backtest.
Get USDJPY signals on Telegram
USDJPY is in every plan, all 3 of them. They differ in which indices come with it. Each plan is a private Telegram channel; monthly or yearly, cancel anytime.
Premium
Most PopularUS500, US100 and US30 on the US cash session, plus the USDJPY Morning Range.
01How do USDJPY signals work?
Each USDJPY signal is posted to a private Telegram channel the moment the system triggers. It gives the direction, the exact entry, a hard stop-loss and one take-profit target. You place the orders with your own broker. Nothing is executed on your behalf.
02What time do USDJPY signals come?
USDJPY signals can arrive from 05:00 CET on any weekday, at most one a day. In the backtest 85% of USDJPY entries came before 09:00 CET. Anything still open is closed at 17:00 CET (11:00 New York), so every position is closed the same day.
03What is the win rate of the USDJPY signals?
43.4% of USDJPY trades closed in profit after costs. That is below half by design: the average winner was 1.36 R against an average loser of 0.85 R, a payoff of 1.60, so the 1,462 trades made +162.7 R in total. A win rate only means something next to the payoff.
04Which plan includes USDJPY signals?
Every plan. Economic ($69.99 a month) carries it with DE40, Premium ($99.99 a month) with US500, US100 and US30, and Diamond ($129.99 a month) with all four indices. The same USDJPY signal goes to all three.
The index signals in the same plans
Every plan pairs USDJPY with index signals from a separate system: one algorithm on four indices across two sessions, backtested on its own three-year window. Compare the plans.
DE40
- Trades / wk
- 3.3
- Win rate
- 45.3%
- Net, 3 yrs
- +47.1 R
US500
- Trades / wk
- 3
- Win rate
- 42.5%
- Net, 3 yrs
- +15.7 R
US100
- Trades / wk
- 3.1
- Win rate
- 42.8%
- Net, 3 yrs
- +30.1 R
US30
- Trades / wk
- 3.1
- Win rate
- 41.4%
- Net, 3 yrs
- +23.0 R
Backtested results are hypothetical and are not indicative of future performance. Index figures cover 2023-09-01 to 2026-09-25 on 5-minute data and are shown after the spread quoted at each trade’s entry plus 0.20 points of slippage per side, unless marked gross. Backtests have inherent limitations and do not reflect every effect of live execution. The index system went live in August 2026. USDJPY figures cover 2021-01-04 to 2026-09-29 on 1-minute data, after the spread quoted at each trade’s entry bar (markup included, no commission) plus 0.20 pips of slippage per side. This is a signal service: we do not manage money, execute trades on your behalf or give personalised advice. Trading leveraged CFDs carries a substantial risk of loss, and you may lose more than your deposit.