US cash sessionPremiumDiamond

US100 Trading Signals

Algorithmic Nasdaq 100 signals on the US cash session

One rules-based algorithm trades the Nasdaq 100 in the first part of the New York cash session and posts every setup to Telegram with an exact entry, a stop-loss and three take-profit targets. At most one trade a session, flat before the close. Over three years of 5-minute data it took 495 trades and made +30.1 R after spread and slippage.

Built and run by Kamil Uchwat with mentor Paul Mears. About the team

3.1
Trades per week on average, max one a session
42.8%
Win rate · payoff 1.53×
+30.1 R
Net result after costs, 3 years
18.5 R
Largest drawdown, peak to trough
Backtest

US100 signal performance

Three years of 5-minute data, 495 trades, every one charged the spread quoted on its entry bar plus 0.20 points of slippage per side. Losing stretches included.

Net R per trade
+0.061 R
+0.077 R before costs
Profit factor
1.15
Gross wins ÷ gross losses
Average win / loss
1.11 / 0.72
In R · payoff 1.53×
Sortino
1.19
Sharpe 0.73 · daily, annualised
Positive months
23 / 37
62% of months closed up
Return ÷ drawdown
1.63
+30.1 R over a 18.5 R drawdown
Median hold
2.6h
90% closed within 5.7h
Trades
495
Sep 2023 - Sep 2026

US100 equity curve

Cumulative R, week by week

+30.1 R net
Net of costs Gross, before costs (+37.9 R)
-200204060202420252026

Weekly resolution; the curve is flat in weeks without a trade.

Year by year

Every year at the same weight, the bad ones too

YearTradesWin rateNet
20236237.1%−9.3 R
202417342.2%+11.3 R
202514246.5%+19.7 R
202611842.4%+8.3 R
Best month
+6.7 R
Jul 2024
Worst month
−7.9 R
Feb 2024

Monthly net R

Swipe sideways to see every month →

Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Year
2023
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
−4.0
−2.4
−5.2
+2.3
−9.3 R
2024
+0.1
−7.9
+0.2
+4.9
−3.4
−0.1
+6.7
+4.0
−1.4
−1.8
+5.2
+4.7
+11.3 R
2025
+0.9
−0.7
+3.3
+3.8
−1.5
+4.2
+2.1
−1.5
+4.5
+2.2
+2.1
+0.2
+19.7 R
2026
−0.2
+0.2
+4.9
+3.4
+1.4
+5.2
−3.3
−4.6
+1.3
·
·
·
+8.3 R

Is the US100 edge real?

Every result is tested against the same trades taken in a random direction at the same cost, and the full portfolio comes out ahead by 0.089 R on every trade. Over three years of backtesting US100 made +30.1 R after trading costs across 495 trades. US100 is one part of a plan, and the plans are built to be traded whole. Each market tends to have its best runs at a different time, so their results add up: the edge comes from the sum of every trade a plan carries, across all of its instruments. To get the most from it, take every signal your plan sends, at the same risk.

  • Premium (US500, US100, US30, USDJPY): 2,257 trades, +167.9 R after costs, +338% with profits compounded at 1% risk per trade.
  • Diamond (DE40, US500, US100, US30, USDJPY): 2,787 trades, +215.1 R after costs, +576% with profits compounded at 1% risk per trade.

Plan figures are the backtest of each plan as one account, September 2023 to September 2026.

Timing

When US100 signals fire

The Nasdaq cash session runs from 09:30 to 16:00 New York time, 15:30 to 22:00 CET for most of the year. The opening hour is when pre-market earnings reactions and 08:30 data releases meet full cash-market volume.

Entry time

Half-hour buckets, New York time

Share of tradesTradesNet R
10:00232+33.8 R
10:30128−1.0 R
11:0056+0.5 R
11:3028−0.8 R
12:0013+1.3 R
12:3010−3.9 R
13:0011−3.8 R
13:308+4.4 R
14:007−1.1 R
14:302+0.8 R

Day of the week

Roughly the same number of trades every day

Share of tradesTradesNet R
Mon102+6.2 R
Tue95+13.1 R
Wed100+10.8 R
Thu97−6.1 R
Fri101+6.1 R

Holding time

From entry to the last position closing

Share of tradesTradesNet R
<15m12−12.2 R
15-30m41−30.4 R
30-60m70−36.8 R
1-2h86−34.5 R
2-4h107+33.3 R
>4h179+110.7 R

A hundred trades is a small sample. A weekday or half-hour that looks weak here is most likely noise, not a rule to filter on, and the algorithm does not skip any of them. The holding-time split is different: it shows how the system makes money, by cutting losers early and letting the winners run.

Costs & volatility

What it costs to trade US100

A signal is only as good as the fill you get on it. These are the numbers to check against your own broker.

Median stop
85 pts
Distance from entry to stop
Stop as % of price
0.42%
How far price must move against you
Median spread
0.9 pts
Quoted on the entry bar
Cost per trade
0.016 R
Spread plus 0.20 pts slippage per side
Breakeven slippage
2.51 pts
Per side, on top of the spread

US100 is the most volatile of the four. Its median stop was 85 points, about 0.42% of price, the widest relative to price. Wide stops make the spread small by comparison: costs took only 0.016 R per trade, and the result holds up to about 2.51 points of slippage per side.

As on the other US indices, the return comes from trades that stay open. Positions held for more than four hours made +110.7 R; trades closed within two hours lost −113.9 R between them.

The market

What is the Nasdaq 100?

The Nasdaq 100 tracks the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market, with a modified market-cap weighting that caps the very largest names. Technology, communication services and consumer companies make up most of it, which makes it the benchmark for large-cap growth stocks.

That concentration makes it faster than the S&P 500: wider daily ranges in percentage terms and sharper reactions to interest rates and earnings. Brokers quote the CFD as US100, USTEC or NAS100. The broker the system runs on calls it USTEC; this site calls it US100.

US100 at a glance

Index
Nasdaq 100
Broker symbols
US100 · USTEC · NAS100 · NDX
Cash session
09:30-16:00 New York
Signals
US cash session, flat by 15:55 New York
Plans
Premium · Diamond

What moves the Nasdaq 100

Interest rates

Growth companies are valued on earnings far in the future, so Treasury yields and Fed expectations hit the Nasdaq harder than other indices.

Big-tech earnings

A few companies make up a large part of the index, and their results and guidance can move it by a percent or more.

US macro data

CPI, the jobs report and retail sales at 08:30 New York set the tone before the cash open.

Semiconductors

Chipmakers are a large and volatile part of the index, and news from the sector spreads to the rest of it quickly.

How a signal works

Anatomy of a US100 signal

Every message carries the same five levels, so there is nothing to interpret. You decide whether to take it and how much to risk.

  • One trade, three positions. Each opens at the same entry with the same stop and a different target: 1.5R, 2R and 2.5R. Taking partial profit on the way lets the last position run.
  • The stop is where the idea is wrong. It is set for each trade, not as a fixed number of points. On US100 the median stop was 85 points, about 0.42% of price.
  • R is the unit. 1R is what you lose if the stop is hit. Sizing each trade so 1R is a small, fixed share of your account keeps every signal the same size of bet, whatever the index is doing.
US100BUY
Illustration
Entry23,180.0
Stop-loss−1R23,095.0
TP1+1.5R23,307.5
TP2+2R23,350.0
TP3+2.5R23,392.5

Representative levels built from the median US100 stop, not a real trade.

Learn

How to read these numbers

Backtest statistics are easy to quote and easy to misread. Here is what each one on this page means, using the figures for this market.

R: risk as the unit

1R is the amount lost if the stop is hit. A +2R trade made twice the risk; a −1R trade lost it. Measuring in R makes the results independent of account size and of how many dollars or euros one US100 point is worth.

Win rate needs the payoff

42.8% winners looks weak on its own. With an average winner of 1.11 R and an average loser of 0.72 R, the expectancy is 0.428 × 1.11 − 0.572 × 0.72 ≈ +0.061 R per trade.

Profit factor

Everything won divided by everything lost. 1.0 is breakeven. At 1.15, each 1R lost on US100 was matched by 1.15R won.

Drawdown

The largest fall from a running high: 18.5 R, bottoming on 2024-04-11. Risking 0.5% of the account per trade, that is roughly 9% of the balance. Size for the drawdown you can sit through, not the return you hope for.

Gross and net

Gross is before trading costs, net is after the spread on each entry and 0.20 points of slippage per side. On US100 costs took 7.8 R out of 37.9 R gross. Every figure here is net unless it says gross.

Sortino and Sharpe

Return per unit of volatility, from daily results annualised over 252 trading days. Sharpe counts all volatility; Sortino only the losing days. US100 scores 1.19 Sortino and 0.73 Sharpe on its own; combining markets raises both.

More in the guides: win rate vs risk-reward, what R means and how to size a position, how to read a backtest, how to check a Telegram signal provider.

Plans

Get US100 signals on Telegram

US100 is in 2 plans. Each plan is a private Telegram channel; monthly or yearly, cancel anytime.

Premium

Most Popular
$99.99/ month

US500, US100 and US30 on the US cash session, plus the USDJPY Morning Range.

US500US100US30USDJPY

Diamond

Best Value
$129.99/ month

All four indices and the USDJPY Morning Range on one account: the European and US sessions together.

DE40US500US100US30USDJPY
FAQ

US100 signals, answered

Still unsure? Email support@tfx-signals.com before you subscribe.

01

How do US100 signals work?

Each US100 signal is posted to a private Telegram channel the moment the algorithm triggers. It gives the direction, the exact entry, a hard stop-loss and three take-profit targets at 1.5R, 2R and 2.5R, so one trade opens three positions. You place the orders with your own broker. Nothing is executed on your behalf.

02

What time do US100 signals come?

During the US cash session, 09:30 to 16:00 New York time, which is 15:30 to 22:00 CET for most of the year. In the backtest 73% of US100 entries came before 11:00 New York, and everything is flat by 15:55.

03

How many US100 signals are there per week?

About 3.1 trades a week on average, and never more than one per session: 495 trades over three years. The setup doesn't form every day, so quiet weeks are normal.

04

Which plan includes US100 signals?

Premium ($99.99 a month) covers US500, US100 and US30 on the US session. Diamond ($129.99 a month) adds DE40 on the European open. Economic's only index is DE40, so it does not include US100. Every plan also carries the USDJPY Morning Range, a separate system.

Other markets

The same algorithm on other indices

One system trades four indices across two sessions, and every plan also carries a separate USDJPY system. Compare the plans.

Backtested results are hypothetical and are not indicative of future performance. Index figures cover 2023-09-01 to 2026-09-25 on 5-minute data and are shown after the spread quoted at each trade’s entry plus 0.20 points of slippage per side, unless marked gross. Backtests have inherent limitations and do not reflect every effect of live execution. The index system went live in August 2026. This is a signal service: we do not manage money, execute trades on your behalf or give personalised advice. Trading leveraged CFDs carries a substantial risk of loss, and you may lose more than your deposit.