DE40 Trading Signals
Algorithmic DAX 40 signals on the European open
One rules-based algorithm trades the Germany 40 from the Xetra open and posts every setup to Telegram with an exact entry, a stop-loss and three take-profit targets. At most one trade a session, closed the same day. Over three years of 5-minute data it took 519 trades and made +43.3 R after spread and slippage.
DE40 signal performance
Three years of 5-minute data, 519 trades, every one charged the spread quoted on its entry bar plus 0.20 points of slippage per side. Losing stretches included.
DE40 equity curve
Cumulative R, week by week
Largest drawdown 28.2 R, bottoming on 2024-02-26. Weekly resolution; the curve is flat in weeks without a trade.
Year by year
Every year at the same weight, the bad ones too
| Year | Trades | Win rate | Gross | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023from Sep | 72 | 26.4% | −16.1 R | −19.5 R |
| 2024 | 168 | 45.8% | +23.5 R | +16.2 R |
| 2025 | 164 | 46.3% | +24.1 R | +18.5 R |
| 2026to Aug | 115 | 53.9% | +31.4 R | +28.1 R |
Monthly net R
23 of 36 months positiveSwipe sideways to see every month →
When DE40 signals fire
Xetra, Deutsche Börse's electronic venue, runs the DAX cash market from 09:00 to 17:30 Frankfurt time. The first hour is when overnight news from Asia and the US gets priced in and when the day's opening range is set, and that is where the algorithm looks for its setup.
Entry time
Half-hour buckets, Frankfurt time
Day of the week
Roughly the same number of trades every day
Holding time
From entry to the last position closing
A hundred trades is a small sample. A weekday or half-hour that looks weak here is most likely noise, not a rule to filter on, and the algorithm does not skip any of them. The holding-time split is different: it shows how the system makes money, by cutting losers early and letting the winners run.
What it costs to trade DE40
A signal is only as good as the fill you get on it. These are the numbers to check against your own broker.
The median DE40 stop was 31 points, about 0.15% of the index level, the tightest of the four markets relative to price. Tight stops make costs count: spread and slippage took 0.038 R off every trade.
The losses come from trades that are stopped out fast. Trades closed inside 15 minutes lost −62.7 R between them, while trades held for more than four hours made +61.6 R. That is why the median trade lasts only 0.8 hours even though the winners run for most of the session.
What is the DAX 40?
The DAX 40 tracks the 40 largest and most liquid German companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, weighted by free-float market capitalisation. It grew from 30 to 40 members in September 2021. Industrials, carmakers, chemicals, insurers and software companies such as SAP, Siemens, Allianz and Deutsche Telekom carry most of the weight, which makes it one of the most export-driven major indices in the world.
Unlike the S&P 500 or the Dow, the DAX is a performance index: dividends are reinvested into the index level, so it does not drop when its members go ex-dividend. CFD brokers quote it as DE40, GER40 or GER40Cash. The underlying is the same, but the spread and the hours each broker quotes it differ.
DE40 at a glance
- Index
- DAX 40
- Broker symbols
- DE40 · GER40 · GER40Cash · DAX
- Cash session
- 09:00–17:30 Frankfurt
- Signals
- European open
- Plans
- Economic · Diamond
What moves the DAX 40
German and eurozone data
Ifo business climate, ZEW sentiment and the PMIs move the index on release, mostly during the morning session.
ECB policy
Rate decisions and the press conference after them reprice banks, insurers and the index as a whole.
The US open
US data at 14:30 CET and the Wall Street open at 15:30 CET often set the direction of the DAX afternoon.
Global trade
Carmakers, chemicals and machinery earn much of their revenue abroad, so tariffs, Chinese demand and EUR/USD show up in the index.
Anatomy of a DE40 signal
Every message carries the same five levels, so there is nothing to interpret. You decide whether to take it and how much to risk.
- One trade, three positions. Each opens at the same entry with the same stop and a different target: 1.5R, 2R and 2.5R. Taking partial profit on the way lets the last position run.
- The stop is where the idea is wrong. It is set by the structure of the move, not by a fixed number of points. On DE40 the median stop was 31 points, about 0.15% of price.
- R is the unit. 1R is what you lose if the stop is hit. Sizing each trade so 1R is a small, fixed share of your account keeps every signal the same size of bet, whatever the index is doing.
Representative levels built from the median DE40 stop, not a real trade.
How to read these numbers
Backtest statistics are easy to quote and easy to misread. Here is what each one on this page means, using the figures for this market.
R: risk as the unit
1R is the amount lost if the stop is hit. A +2R trade made twice the risk; a −1R trade lost it. Measuring in R makes the results independent of account size and of how many dollars or euros one DE40 point is worth.
Win rate needs the payoff
45.1% winners looks weak on its own. With an average winner of 1.34 R and an average loser of 0.95 R, the expectancy is 0.451 × 1.34 − 0.549 × 0.95 ≈ +0.083 R per trade.
Profit factor
Everything won divided by everything lost. 1.0 is breakeven. At 1.16, each 1R lost on DE40 was matched by 1.16R won. Thin, but a thin edge repeated hundreds of times is how systematic trading works.
Drawdown
The largest fall from a running high: 28.2 R, bottoming on 2024-02-26. Risking 0.5% of the account per trade, that is roughly 14% of the balance. Size for the drawdown you can sit through, not the return you hope for.
Gross and net
Gross is before trading costs, net is after the spread on each entry and 0.20 points of slippage per side. On DE40 costs took 19.6 R out of 62.9 R gross. Every figure here is net unless it says gross.
Sortino and Sharpe
Return per unit of volatility, from daily results annualised over 252 trading days. Sharpe counts all volatility; Sortino only the losing days. DE40 scores 1.48 Sortino and 0.89 Sharpe on its own; combining markets raises both.
Is the DE40 edge statistically real?
DE40 is the only one of the four markets whose result clears a t-statistic of 2 on its own (t = 2.28). Against the control, the same trades taken in a random direction, it comes out 0.179 R per trade ahead (t = 3.35). A t-statistic measures how far an average sits from zero in units of its own uncertainty; about 2 is the usual bar for “unlikely to be luck”.
Get DE40 signals on Telegram
DE40 is in 2 plans. Each plan is a private Telegram channel; monthly or yearly, cancel anytime.
01How do DE40 signals work?
Each DE40 signal is posted to a private Telegram channel the moment the algorithm triggers. It gives the direction, the exact entry, a hard stop-loss and three take-profit targets at 1.5R, 2R and 2.5R, so one trade opens three positions. You place the orders with your own broker. Nothing is executed on your behalf.
02What time do DE40 signals come?
During the Xetra cash session, which opens at 09:00 Frankfurt time. In the backtest 80% of DE40 entries came before 10:30 Frankfurt and the rest later in the day, and every position was closed the same day.
03How many DE40 signals are there per week?
About 3.3 trades a week on average, and never more than one per session: 519 trades over three years. The setup doesn't form every day, so quiet weeks are normal.
04What is the win rate of the DE40 signals?
45.1% of DE40 trades closed in profit after costs. That is below half by design: the average winner was 1.34 R against an average loser of 0.95 R, a payoff of 1.41, so the 519 trades made +43.3 R in total. A win rate only means something next to the payoff.
05What spread do I need to trade DE40 signals?
Brokers list it as DE40, GER40, GER40Cash, DAX. The backtest charged the spread quoted on each trade's entry bar, a median of 0.5 points, plus 0.20 points of slippage per side. The result reaches zero at about 1.19 points of slippage per side on top of the spread, so a broker quoting DE40 much wider than that will eat the edge.
06Which plan includes DE40 signals?
Economic ($69.99 a month) covers DE40 on its own. Diamond ($129.99 a month) carries DE40 together with US500, US100 and US30. Premium is the US session only and does not include DE40.
07Are DE40 trades held overnight?
No. Every DE40 trade closes in the session it opened in. The median trade lasted 0.8 hours and 90% closed within 6.2 hours, so there is no overnight or weekend exposure.
08Are these DE40 results real trades?
They are backtested. The algorithm was replayed bar by bar over 5-minute data from 1 September 2023 to 31 August 2026 with no knowledge of what came next, and every figure is after spread and slippage unless it says gross. The system went live in August 2026. Backtested results are hypothetical and do not guarantee future returns.
The same algorithm on other indices
One system trades four indices across two sessions. Compare all four markets.
Backtested results are hypothetical and are not indicative of future performance. Figures cover 2023-09-01 to 2026-08-31 on 5-minute data and are shown after the spread quoted at each trade’s entry plus 0.20 points of slippage per side, unless marked gross. Backtests have inherent limitations and do not reflect every effect of live execution. The system went live in August 2026. This is a signal service: we do not manage money, execute trades on your behalf or give personalised advice. Trading leveraged CFDs carries a substantial risk of loss, and you may lose more than your deposit.